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Stress tests and shocks

Apply a percent, amount, or fixed-value shock to many forecast cells of a scenario, and read where a cash row first goes negative.

A shock changes many forecast cells of one scenario in one step. Use a shock for a fixed stress test, such as "revenue falls 20% from March". The result is exact for the assumptions that you enter. It does not give probabilities.

The stress controls are in the full model, so only a team Owner can apply a shock.

1. Open the stress controls

  1. Go to Scenario planning → open a model.
  2. Select Model settings → Scenarios.
  3. Scroll below Compare scenarios to the stress controls.

If the model has only its base scenario, the panel shows "Create a scenario to stress test — shocks never write the default scenario." Refer to Create a scenario.

2. Apply a shock

  1. Choose the Scenario. The list does not include the base.
  2. Under Rows to shock, select one or more variables. You can shock a maximum of 50 rows in one step.
  3. Choose a Shock type.
  4. Enter the Value.
  5. Choose the Window: All forecast periods, or From a period.
  6. Select Apply shock.
ShockValue to enterNew value in each period
Percent (%)-20 for −20%Current value × 0.8
Add amount5000Current value + 5,000
Set value00

The Revenue drop −20% and Expense spike +15% buttons set Percent (%) and fill the value. They do not select rows.

After the shock, the panel reports the result, for example "Shock applied to 12 period values." The report also counts the skipped periods. If no period can change, Eigenn refuses the shock.

3. A shock stores fixed values

A shock calculates from the current values of the scenario. Then it stores the results as ordinary overrides. This is the same as typing each number by hand.

  • A later base edit does not change a shocked cell. Example: base Revenue is 100,000 and a −20% shock stores 80,000. If you change the base to 120,000, the scenario stays at 80,000.
  • Two shocks on the same cells compound. A −20% shock and then a −10% shock give −28%.
  • Each time you select Apply shock, Eigenn applies the shock again. Select it one time only.
  • Percent (%) and Add amount skip a period that has no value. Set value does not skip it.
  • A shock never changes an actual period or a closed period.
  • If the Last actual date later moves past a shocked period, the actual value replaces the override.

To remove a shocked value, clear the cell in the grid. To keep a return point, save a version before you apply a shock.

4. Find the cash breach

Below the shock controls, choose a Cash row. Eigenn reads that row in the selected scenario and shows:

  • Lowest point: the lowest forecast value and its period.
  • First negative: the first period below zero, and the number of forecast periods of runway before it.

If the row never goes below zero, the panel shows "Never negative inside the model horizon."

5. Probability ranges

This panel does not calculate breach odds, VaR, or CVaR. For these ranges, select the Forecast Workbench link in the panel. Refer to Stress tests.

Related

  • Compare scenarios
  • Plans and adjustments
  • Last actual date
  • Uncertainty in formulas
  • Save a version

Start from a template

Create a planning model from a blank grid or from one of the built-in templates.

Stripe

Connect Stripe and use the invoices that Eigenn imports as issued-invoice revenue actuals in a model.

On this page

1. Open the stress controls2. Apply a shock3. A shock stores fixed values4. Find the cash breach5. Probability rangesRelated

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